UST held its peg via mint/burn arbitrage against LUNA (its own sister token = endogenous collateral). When confidence broke, redeeming UST minted more LUNA, crashing LUNA, which destroyed the backing — reflexive death spiral.
Model issued B grade 90 days before the failure event.
Grade timeline
- 2022-02-0890d beforeBcomposite 51/100 · conf 33%
- 2022-04-0930d beforeCCCcomposite 48/100 · conf 39%
- 2022-05-09failure dayBcomposite 51/100 · conf 33%
IRON was 75% USDC + 25% TITAN (partial-algo). Bank run on TITAN triggered hyperinflation death spiral; IRON depegged hard.
Model issued CCC grade 31 days before the failure event.
Grade timeline
- 2021-05-1631d beforeCCCcomposite 47/100 · conf 39%
- 2021-06-16failure dayBcomposite 51/100 · conf 35%
$3.3B of USDC reserves stuck at Silicon Valley Bank when it failed. USDC depegged until the government backstopped deposits.
Model issued B grade 90 days before the failure event.
Grade timeline
- 2022-12-1190d beforeBcomposite 59/100 · conf 49%
- 2023-03-047d beforeBcomposite 59/100 · conf 49%
- 2023-03-11failure dayBBcomposite 63/100 · conf 46%
RWA-backed (tokenized real estate). When a redemption run hit, the liquid reserve (DAI portion) ran out; only illiquid real estate remained.
Model issued B grade 30 days before the failure event.
Grade timeline
- 2023-09-1130d beforeBcomposite 53/100 · conf 36%
- 2023-10-11failure dayBcomposite 53/100 · conf 35%
SIP-420 moved sUSD to a shared debt pool and cut collateralization from 750% → 200%, removing stakers’ incentive to repay debt by buying cheap sUSD.
Model issued B grade 31 days before the failure event.
Grade timeline
- 2025-03-1531d beforeBcomposite 57/100 · conf 41%
- 2025-04-15failure dayBcomposite 57/100 · conf 40%
Delta-neutral synthetic. October 2025 market-wide liquidation cascade (~$20B) swung USDe to $0.65 on Binance — exchange-specific liquidity-depth shock.
Model issued B grade 30 days before the failure event.
Grade timeline
- 2025-09-1030d beforeBcomposite 56/100 · conf 44%
- 2025-10-10failure dayBcomposite 57/100 · conf 40%
Backed by an off-chain fund manager (Stream). When Stream reported ~$93M in losses, xUSD — whose backing was unverifiable on-chain — collapsed to ~$0.23.
Model issued B grade 30 days before the failure event.
Grade timeline
- 2025-10-0530d beforeBcomposite 54/100 · conf 37%
- 2025-11-04failure dayBcomposite 55/100 · conf 35%
Elixir lent 68M USDC to Stream — 65% of deUSD’s reserves. When xUSD fell 65%, deUSD followed via contagion.
Model issued B grade 31 days before the failure event.
Grade timeline
- 2025-10-0531d beforeBcomposite 52/100 · conf 40%
- 2025-10-297d beforeBcomposite 55/100 · conf 35%
- 2025-11-05failure dayBcomposite 55/100 · conf 35%
CeFi lender paying unsustainable yield; rehypothecated deposits into illiquid stETH and locked GBTC; froze withdrawals before Chapter 11.
Model issued B grade 61 days before the failure event.
Grade timeline
- 2022-05-1361d beforeBcomposite 53/100 · conf 35%
- 2022-06-1330d beforeBcomposite 53/100 · conf 35%
- 2022-07-13failure dayBcomposite 53/100 · conf 35%
FTT (exchange’s own token) used as collateral = endogenous; related-party concentration (Alameda); opacity. CoinDesk leak → CZ tweet → bank run.
Model issued B grade 31 days before the failure event.
Grade timeline
- 2022-10-1131d beforeBcomposite 55/100 · conf 35%
- 2022-11-065d beforeBcomposite 55/100 · conf 35%
- 2022-11-11failure dayBcomposite 55/100 · conf 35%
Flash-loan governance attack: attacker borrowed enough governance tokens in one transaction to pass a malicious proposal instantly (no timelock).
Model issued B grade 31 days before the failure event.
Grade timeline
- 2022-03-1731d beforeBcomposite 56/100 · conf 41%
- 2022-04-17failure dayBcomposite 54/100 · conf 40%
Misconfigured liquidity pool minted 3B+ aUSD by mistake → instant ~99% depeg.
Model issued B grade 31 days before the failure event.
Grade timeline
- 2022-07-1431d beforeBcomposite 55/100 · conf 38%
- 2022-08-14failure dayBcomposite 55/100 · conf 38%
